The Rites of Spring

Welcome to the 2nd Czar’s blog of 2016 celebrating the end of Spring Training and the true beginning of 2016, when baseball comes back to the City by the Bay. The G-Men return home to AT&T today and play tomorrow and Friday before a game in Oakland and then off to Milwaukee for the Brewer’s home opener.

What does the team look like coming out of Arizona?

Answer: They look healthy and ready to play!

Pitching staff: The pitching staff has a high spring ERA but then again, they always do,  Spring is the time for pitchers to test pitches and get back in condition.  The good news is that the staff is healthy and the starters and relievers have pitched well over the last couple of weeks. The bad news is that the Spring ERA’s look pretty pathetic.

The Starters: I suspect that Bumgarner is not going to have a 11.12 ERA for long but we will see him on Monday against the Brewers. Peavy is at 7.62 for the spring but is starting to look very tough, Cueto is at 9.58, Smardzija is at 7.20 and Cain is at 12.15. The starters obviously need to suck it up now that the season is starting.

The Relievers (who have for the most part pitched much better than the starters): Heston, Osich and Kontos will be in long relief, Lopez and Romo (who has looked exceptionally tough) will be specialists, and Strickland and Casilla will be fighting it out as closers.   The G-Men are going to carry 13 pitchers so it looks like Cody Gearrin will get a shot (but maybe Jake Dunning will replace him – the last position battle going on).

Does all this sound familiar?  It should.  This is exactly how it looked going into Spring Training

The Infield is acknowledged to be best in the NL 

Belt (who is hitting really well and with power) at 1st, Panik at 2nd, Duffy at 3rd, Crawford at short and Buster Posey, the best catcher (and the best player) currently playing baseball, behind the dish.  It doesn’t get any better than this.  The defensive metrics for this group when they are together are off the charts.  Moreover they are hitting the snot out of the ball (the most home runs during spring training of any team in baseball).  Of course that is spring training but let’s see what they look like at AT&T this week.

Kelby Tomlinson (Clark Kent) made the team as the back-up infielder and Adrianza has been a real surprise. He hit the weight room in the off-season, gained 14 pounds (with no loss of speed) and his hitting (.333) has been solid.  Needless to say he made the starting 25.

One surprise.  Susac (he needs to get his wrist healthy) got sent down and Trevor Brown made the team as the back-up catcher.

Outfield: The bottom line is that the outfield is healthy and ready for the season. Hunter Pence is back (.471 and 6 dingers!). Denard Span is showing what he can do when he’s healthy but the eye opener has been a good-looking Pagan in left field (.395 with power – can you say “contract year” for Pagan?). Blanco is the fourth outfielder (which may all the outfielders that are carried early on – but Belt can play outfield in a pinch). Maxwell and Williamson both went to Sacramento, along with Conor Gillespie (who had a good spring and Gorkys Hernandez, another spring surprise).

Again, no real surprises after spring training, which is a testament to the Giants front office and coaching staff.  Bruce Bochy is the best manager in the game today, no question.

One question? Where’s Timmy?  Complete silence from the Lincecum corner.  I keep expecting something but who knows.

The NL West – what’s happening there?  

While this will be a three-team race (Dodgers, Giants and Snakes), the April ball-games will tell a lot.  The G-Men face the Dodgers (7 games), Rockies (3 games), Snakes (4 games) and the Padres (3 games) in April. That’s 14 games against the NL West alone.  Factor in a series against the Brewers and Marlins and it’s a very tough few weeks, with almost no days off.  That’s why Bochy is carrying 13 pitchers.  Let’s see how fresh the G-Men are after April.

The Dodgers are beset with injuries but the Snakes are playing well in the spring, as are the Padres. It is really too early to report without some games under our belt. We will have a much better handle on the NL West after April is over.

The next blog post (probably early next week) will offer tickets to the first homestand, and there will be tickets available, so make sure the blog post email gets through!

Now it is time to get the glove ready for AT&T and enjoy baseball – 2016 style!

Ciao, and GO GIANTS!

The Czar

Spring Training in an Even Year

Welcome to the 1st Czar’s blog of 2016 celebrating the true beginning of the new year – when pitchers and catchers report to Scottsdale for San Francisco Giants training camp.  Position players reported today.

Without further ado, let’s check in on the boys in Orange and Black, who finished last season with a winning 84/78 record but out of the playoffs.

There are many theories behind the odd/even year thing but the one I most favor is the injury theory. That holds that a team playing late into a season doesn’t have time to recover from the inevitable run of injuries attendant to any 162 game season, which made the Kansas City Royals victory last year (and all the Yankee’s back to back titles) all the more remarkable.

However that also points up a Giants weakness, which is their relative lack of depth.

Where we left off in October – The injury list Now

• Aoki – Concussion symptoms. He was not available in left field for the end of the season run, which forced Blanco to play more than expected. Aoki is now with the Mariners where he can cheer on Ichiro (who will soon pass Pete Rose if you include Ichiro’s Japanese hits).
• Cain – nerve irritation.  He says he’s fine and is now the 5th starter making $18 million a year.  Matt must a major piece this year and the lingering injury uncertainty is one of the reasons the national press is questioning the Giants pitching staff.
• Crawford – calf injury and oblique but he still got a gold glove and a silver slugger award.  He is rightfully regarded as the best shortstop in the NL and was rewarded with an appropriate contract in the off-season.
• Lincecum – hip, out for the season and probably no longer a Giant because there is no place for him on the roster. Especially concerning is that he keeps delaying throwing off a mound.  He could be done but if he is 2 Cy Young’s and 3 rings will keep him forever in the hearts of all the Giants faithful. I will never see number 55 again without thinking of the Freak - - he will be taking tokes in our thoughts forever.
• Panik – back tightness. Scary stuff after what happened to Scutero and Sanchez but Panik says that his back is healed and he’s full strength.  Let that be so because he’s a legitimate .300 hitter with great baseball sense and a great glove. He has the ability to be our best 2nd baseman since Jeff Kent.
• Pence – left oblique strain (after a broken arm). He was out for 110 games.  Hunter is the heart and soul of the team.  He is truly the straw that stirs the drink (with apologies to Reggie). He’s healthy with a new haircut, and a new girlfriend. The haircut worries us all.
• Sanchez and Susac (both back-up catchers!) out for the season in September. Hector is gone and Susac is a question mark. Backup catcher is a position to watch in spring training. Trevor Brown (a very good looking kid) is going to be pushing Susac hard.

What did the off-season look like?

The Giants brain trust stepped up to the plate and addressed the biggest need –starting pitching.  They picked up Johnny Cueto from the Royals and Jeff Smardzija from the White Sox.  Two work horse pitchers (200 plus inning eaters) joining the other horse (Cain).  Then the hole that Aoki left in left field was filled with Denard Span from the Nationals. This was about $220 million in salary commitments but – if they can perform coming off of injuries (Span), and a down year (Samardzija) the rotation and lineup will be solid.  The worry is that the reason the Giants got a bargain was because the players really are injured.

What is this year supposed to look like?

Pitching staff: solid. Bumgarner (personally I will take Bum over Kershaw anytime – the fact that he brought his horse to spring training says it all), Peavy (however, is he healthy? There is a question mark there with his hip – and he did not have surgery in the off-season), Cueto (who was smoking hot with the Reds but less so with the Royals, until the playoffs), Smardzija (a Dave Righetti project) and Cain. Heston, Osich and Kontos will be in long relief, Lopez and Romo will be specialists, and Strickland and Casilla will be fighting it out as closers. Affeldt retired but there may be some real surprises here in training camp. Law and Okert will be fighting for spots.  Keep in mind that the ESPN knuckleheads picked the Dodgers pitching staff over the Giants based on depth.  We will see on April 7th.

Infield: best in the NL?  Belt (with a one year deal to avoid arbitration) at 1st, Panik at 2nd, Duffy at 3rd, Crawford at short and Buster Posey, the best catcher (and probably best player) currently playing baseball, behind the dish.  It doesn’t get any better than this.  The defensive metrics for this group when they are together are off the charts.  The challenge however is behind them. Kelby Tomlinson (Clark Kent) showed at the end of last season that he can play. The question is whether or not he can keep it up this year. I’ve never been a fan of Adrianza and I suspect that this spring will see him seriously tested. It would have been nice to see Juan Uribe as a back-up but that was not to be.

Outfield: improved and healthy, or not ready for prime time? The good news is that Hunter Pence is back, and that the G-Men picked up a really good center fielder and lead-off hitter in Denard Span from the Nationals. However Span spent most of last season injured.  Pagan is slated for left field (Pagan is in a contract year but he is 35, and he is fragile) with Blanco as the fourth outfielder.  The battle for back-up in the outfield will be Maxwell and Williamson, neither overwhelming. This is a unit that is supposed to have power but, except for Pence, the numbers just aren’t there.  I would not be surprised to see some trade moves involving Pagan (and maybe Maxwell or Williamson) in the spring.

The NL West – what’s happening there?  Right now the national press is split over the Giants or the Dodgers coming out on top of the NL West.  This blog of course picks the G-Men to come out on top, but it will be a dog-fight right down to the wire.

It may really be a three-team race. Many (including John Smoltz at MLB) favor the Giants because the Dodgers lost Grienke to the Diamondbacks, and the Giants are a solid team.

Do not leave the Snakes out of this discussion. The may have a really good year and challenge when one considers that the Snakes got Shelby Miller from Atlanta, Patrick Corbin is healthy and Paul Goldschmidt is the best first baseman in baseball not named Adrian Gonzales.  I would also notforget that Tony La Russo in putting together the back end in Arizona.  He is not to be trifled with.

But the Dodgers have young position starters (Joc Pederson, Yasiel Puig – with a new attitude that I will believe when I see it -  and the supposed rookie sensation at SS in Corey Seager) along with incredible depth that are causing the national press to favor them over the G-Men. While the Dodger’s also have all-world pitcher Clayton Kershaw behind him are pitchers (such as Kazmir, Anderson and Maeda) that, while serviceable, are not world class.

I do not want to leave out the Padres and the Rockies, both good teams that are in a rebuilding mode. While they are not expected to challenge for the division lead they are not to be overlooked, especially the Rockies hitters.

Finally, do not forget the intangibles.  In the Giants case that includes Bochy and Wotus (the best managers in the league), the Giants front office of Brian Sabean and Bobby Evans and our secret weapons – the fans and AT&T park.

Against that the boys in blue have a new manager (Dave Roberts, who we like but who is a rookie manager after Mattingly got canned and went to Miami) and the Snakes have Chip Hale.  I think that the odds here favor Bochy and Wotus, don’t you?

Now it is time to sit down, pull up the easy chair, get the glove ready for AT&T and enjoy baseball – 2016 style!

Ciao, and GO GIANTS!

The Czar

The Rest of The Season!

Welcome to the 12th Czar’s blog of 2015 celebrating our World Champion San Francisco Giants!  The rules are below.

Is there a chance to overcome the injuries, as well as the Dodgers, and make the playoffs?

·         Like I said in the last blog the Dodgers series would tell the tale, and unfortunately it did.  We played three playoff games against the Dodgers best pitchers and lost three one-run games with a short-handed team that limped into the series. Kershaw and Grienke were as advertised but I think that the key to the LA success (for the moment anyway) was putting Puig, a clubhouse cancer, on the DL and picking up the best Phillies infield of the last decade (Utley and Rollins) for the end of the season run. It is always amazing what a ton of money will do.

·         Regardless, there is always a chance as long as the G-Men are not mathematically eliminated.  The Dodgers have been known to choke (you think? last WS was 1988 for the most expensive payroll in baseball) and the LA team has to play three games at the end of the season at AT&T against what will certainly be a very surly Giants team.  If the G-Men can pull out a few series and the Dodgers lose a few, and the separation is around four games at the end, it’s anyone’s division. Wouldn’t that be sweet? (payback for 2004 anyone?).

·         I would counsel the nay-sayers who are burying the Giants (which include most of the sportswriters – and the entire Dodgers nation) to remember the 2012 team that was down two games to the Reds and came back to win the divisional series, and were then down three games to the Cardinals and came back (in the rain no less) to beat the Red Birds in the NLCS.  That was five elimination games – odds such as are facing the Giants now can be (and have been) overcome. The faithful believe.

What does the rest of September and October look like?

·         With the exception of 3 games against the A’s, the entire rest of the season is against the NL West.  The Dodgers, by contrast, have to get through the Pirates (my other favorite team – Go Bucs! – Did you know that they are called the Pirates because they signed one of the first free agents in baseball history?  True fact. Louis Bierbauer).

·         While the schedule slightly favors the Giants, what doesn’t favor the Giants is the incredible run of injuries.

·         Aoki – Concussion symptoms. Damn Arrietta, I will never root for the Cubs again after seeing that headhunter in action.

·         Cain – nerve irritation

·         Crawford – calf injury and oblique

·         LIncecum – hip, out for the season (and maybe as a Giant, but I think that Timmy will be back next year)

·         Panik – back tightness, day to day and probably out for a week,

·         Pence – left oblique strain, probably out for the season

·         Sanchez and Susac (both back-up catchers! – out for the season

·         Buster Posey – still playing but hurt.

·         These are our key players, especially Pence.  Marlon Byrd was a good pick-up but cannot replace Pence.

·         The rookies, Duffy and Tomlinson, are both playing very well but Adrianza is a disaster at shortstop (OK defense, no hit) which is why Noonan is back in a Giants uniform and the new back-up catcher is a career minor leaguer (and looks it).  I was actually thinking that maybe it’s time to bring Eli Whiteside out of retirement.

·         Of the pitchers, Bumgarner and Peavy are carrying the load, Leake looks serviceable but Heston is struggling and I think that this might be Vogelsong;s last year (it’s certainly Hudson’s last year but he is fresh and he might win some key games down the stretch).  The bullpen is back to full strength now that Affeldt (who makes a career of getting hurt playing with his kids) is back.  The bullpen could be the key to a September run.

·         This coming series at home will be telling.  The G-men are coming off of a mediocre road trip against the Snakes and the Rockies and maybe being at home will refresh them. They did look tired over the last two weeks.

What does the off-season look like?

·         Look for free agent signings at pitcher.  I think that the Giants are going to take a run at the Nationals pitching staff because they need a solid number two behind Bumgarner, and Peavy or Leake don’t rise up to that level.

·         Maybe Cain can come back and maybe Timmy’s hip surgery solves his velocity problem but this off season is going to be all about starting pitching. If its home grown (Cain or Lincecum) getting healthy all the better but Bobby Evans will not be afraid to trade.

·         The position players look really good though. Duffy has proven himself as a third baseman with power (anyone miss the Panda? I thoughtnot), Panik is as smooth as they come, Belt is playing well, Blanco has emerged as a force, Crawford is still the best defensive shortstop in baseball, Aoki is one of the best lead-off hitters we have ever had, Marlon Byrd is a great power threat off the bench and, oh yeah, Buster Posey is MVP and we will be talking about him in the Hall of Fame someday.

·         Finally, never forget that the Giants are the reigning World Champions. I don’t know if there is anything to this odd and even year thing, but who cares – this is a great team and we love them!

It’s time for baseball!

Ciao, and GO GIANTS!

The Czar

The Cubs and the Cardinals - It's Crunch Time!

Welcome to the 11th Czar’s blog of 2015 celebrating our World Champion San Francisco Giants!

 

It’s the end of August, the dog days are here and the Giants are facing their biggest challenge - themselves

• The DL remains the main issue.  Panik is not back yet and his back is not healed (how serious is the injury, really? The Giants are vague and that is troubling).  Pence is out with an oblique (a hard to figure injury that might mean he’s out until mid-September) and Pagan was due back tomorrow (but was delayed today, he is not healed either). At least Aoki is back and is playing himself into September shape.

• Bobby Evans (with an able assist from Sabean we expect) has been working the waiver wire and three days ago picked up Marlon Byrd from the Reds (an experienced 38 year old veteran outfielder with power and decent defense), and it is a good trade although Byrd is no Pence. Rumor has it that the G-Men are still in the market and are looking at infielders (they did make a run at Chase Utley but he went with the team that shall not be named).

• Blanco deserves kudos for holding the outfield together through this trying period.  He is playing very well at the moment on defense and at the plate and looks like he wants to keep the starting CF job – look out Pagan.

• Duffy is playing out of his mind.  He is one of seven Giants batting over .300 and if he isn’t rookie of the year there is no justice league of America. His defense is good and his cat is totally cool.

• Posey on the other hand had a terrible road trip (as did the rest of the team – 2 and 5) and looks very tired.  The consensus is that he needs to rest his legs for the stretch run - - but we need his bat in the line-up and his skill set behind the plate. A puzzle to be sure.

• This month has been a test and the test is not over yet. Losing 2 out of three in St. Louis and 3 out of 4 to the red-hot Pirates was not fun but we certainly did get to see playoff baseball over the last week. Game after game of one run differentials, great defense (how about that homer robbing Juan Perez catch?) and good hands (yes, we are talking about you Brandon Crawford).

• We are seeing rookies make an impact. Tomlinson is batting .326 and looking so cool doing it (Clark Kent?) that he might be up permanently before long.  However his second base defense does leave a bit to be desired.

• On the pitching side Bum is already in playoff form with 2 complete games in his last three starts, not to mention 5 dingers and a pinch hit. However behind him we have issues.  Heston is in Sacramento to get a rest before the September call-ups (his pitches were out of control), Cain may be back strong in September (the jury is still out), Lincecum is on the DL (expect to see him in September) and Leake and Peavy look pretty good.  Vogelsong is a cipher – decent one day and throwing batting practice the next. Hudson is still on the DL but he could be a surprise activation for September.

• Finally, the bullpen looks good as long as its rested.  Every one of the bullpen rotation has been beat up at one time or another during August ( Affleldt, Romo, Strickland, Lopez, Kontos and Casilla have all been dinged for home runs).  They need a rest by getting the starters to go more than 5 innings.  That is going to be a key from here on out. If a starter goes 6 full or 7 the bullpen has a great shot at shutting down the opposition.

• This is the time of testing.  Do the G-Men have what it takes to make a another run for a ring? They are certainly capable of hitting, pitching and playing defense with the best of the NL teams.  The next six games in August will answer a lot of questions, so pay close attention.

 

Can the G-Men take the Dodgers and make the playoffs?

• The road to the playoff’s lies through Chavez Ravine.   The Giants and the Dodgers are separated by a game and a half for the division lead (although the Snakes are not that far behind and are playing great ball right now).

• The wild card does not look good with six games between the G-Men and other wild card contenders, the Cubs and the Pirates (or maybe it will be the Cubs and the Cardinals in the wild card because the Pirates are so hot right now that they may overtake the Cards in the NL Central).

• The LA team with the $300 million payroll (highest in baseball and a $140 million 40% luxury tax) is busy self-destructing. The G-Men have another 6 games left against the Dodgers, who are drama personified.  LA has lost 5 games in a row (the only saving grace to the Giants horrible road trip), their rookie of the year is on the bench, Puig was put on waivers, their starting infield was imported from the Phillies, they only have 2 good pitchers (one of whom, Kershaw, looks tired), their bullpen is useless until they can get to their all-star closer and their manager is looking over his shoulder at the third base coach.

• Can LA be overtaken?  Yes they can and that’s why September is going to be the most fun month of the season.

 

The Cubs, the Cardinals and the Dodgers – this is the playoff’s

• The next 9 games are against the leaders – the Cardinals who have great pitching but are in a bit of slump at the moment (they look tired also) and the Cubs, who are everyone’s darlings.  Joel Maddon was the manager that the Dodgers really wanted and couldn’t get and what he is doing to motivate the Cubs is nothing short of phenomenal.

• Can the G-Men get back at the Cubs for the sweep in Chicago last month? We will find out starting tomorrow night when Matt Cain takes on Arrieta and his 2.30 ERA.

• Then the Cardinals come into town and then the G-Men go to LA to face the Dodgers.  This is not an easy schedule, to put it mildly but as theatre it can’t be beat.

It’s time for baseball!

Ciao, and GO GIANTS!

The Czar

Astros, Nationals and the Awful Month of August

Welcome to the 10th Czar’s blog of 2015 celebrating our World Champion San Francisco Giants! 

It’s August, the injuries are piling up again and the pitching is the problem

Let’s get right down to it – the DL.

The DL includes Aoki (concussion – he was beaned), Pagan (his knees are gone and I will be surprised to see him back anytime soon – maybe in September when rosters expand), Panik (back tightness, due back in mid-August, but a very troubling injury for such a young guy), Susac (also due back in mid-August from his thumb sprain) and Scutaro (he’s done and will retire at the end of the season).

On the pitcher DL are Hudson (really in reserve because of his age and inability to get through more than 4 innings without getting pounded), Timmy (no one knows when, or if, he will be ready) and, worst of all, Mike Leake the pitcher who the G-Men traded for at the deadline (from Cincinnati) and who immediately sprained his hamstring.  Leake is a real loss because he’s young, looks a lot like Heston and should be a good number two or three starter. It was, until the injury, one of the better trades in the NL.

The G-Men home grown hitters (Posey, Panik, Pence, Duffy, Crawford and Belt) are now carrying the team. The Giants are hitting the cover off the ball (best hitting team in the NL), which (incidentally) is all that is keeping them alive considering how terrible the pitching has been. Getting swept by the Cubs to finish a 3 and 7 road trip was very painful – but the Cubbies (having won something like 8 straight) are for real under Joel Maddon and will be at AT&T very soon.  Watching the Giants defense behind Crawford, Duffy and Belt and then the hitting, knowing that these guys are all home grown and here for a long time, is an incredible treat

I don’t even want to talk about Casilla (even though he got the save tonight) but let’s leave it at the bullpen has been clearly tired and not effective. For the starters Peavy has looked serviceable, Bum is nails (witness the complete game 12 K gem against the Astros on Tuesday), Heston looks very good, Vogie had his best recent game tonight (even though he only went 5 innings – he does belong in the pen) but Matt Cain looks lost, and is pitching like he is lost.

To get through this month of August while facing all of the best teams in the NL, the G-Men must have better pitching. I hope that Leake is really back next week.

One of the most intriguing news items of the last week is the confirmation that the Giants are making a run at getting Chase Utley for the bench behind Panik (Tomlinson – what a start he’s had as a Clark Kent lookalike - is fun to watch but he’s the future, and a good looking future at that).  Utley (if healthy, and he is apparently getting healthy) would be a powerful veteran force off the bench and a great pick-up for the G-Men.

For some reason I keep thinking of Ryan Theriot and the impact he had.

Can the G-Men hold off the magnificent 7 to make a legitimate run at the playoffs?

It is time to watch the scoreboard because it’s almost September and the playoff field is shaping up.  The Mets are on top of the NL east and 4 games over the Nationals, who are desperate to get one of the two wild card spots (good luck with that). 

In the current competition for those two wild card spots are the Giants, Cubs and Pirates.  That’s why these four games against the Nationals are so important – this could be the National’s season (unless the Mets collapse). There are 5 playoff spots for 7 contending teams right now. St. Louis is a lock for NL Central (73 and 51? They might be the 27 Yankee’s) and both Pittsburgh and the Cubs (3 games better than the G-Men and coming off a sweep) have better records than the Giants.  That leaves the Dodgers (2.5 games ahead of the G-Men) as the real enemy and the real opportunity.  The Giants best realistic hope for a playoff berth are to beat the Dodger’s head to head and to win enough other games to take the division. The Giants are closer to the Dodger’s than they are to the wild card.

Speaking of the Dodger’s didn’t everyone love seeing Puig put on the waiver wire?  Couldn’t happen to a nicer guy.  My LA sources tell me that Puig is such a cancer on the team that Grienke is threatening not to re-sign if they keep Puig. That’s what happens when too much money chases too many egos.

As this month is completed we will see the Pirates and the Cardinals back to back away starting next week, and then the Cubs and the Cardinals at AT&T for the end of the month, before we see the Dodgers in LA.  I don’t think that the schedule can get any tougher than that. These are the games to watch to see how the G-Men match up against these teams (especially the Cardinals) if they make the play-offs.

The Astros and the Nationals – it doesn’t get any better until (maybe) September

The G-Men split against the Astros (who are leading the AL West and are a scrappy little team- yes I am talking about Altuve – full of A’s refugees) and won tonight in the first game of the 4 game series against the Nationals, There are three games left against the Nationals. Tomorrow it’s Scherzer against Cain, a match-up that doesn’t look very good for us and will be the real test for Matt Cain. Saturday is Peavy.

It’s time for baseball!

Ciao, and GO GIANTS!

The Czar