The Rockies and the Blue Jays

Welcome to the 5th Czar’s blog of 2016. The G-Men are in town until May 11th continuing the campaign against the NL West (the Rockies, one game behind the Giants in the standings), and then the AL East with the hard-hitting Toronto Blue Jays (in 3rd place behind the Red Sox and the Orioles). If there are Canadians on this blog they will get Czar’s priority.

The April Report Card

Let’s start with the good news, sparse though it might be.  The G-Men are in 1st place in the NL West, and only because the Dodgers keep losing.  The emails that I get from my Dodger’s friends point out that management and the coaching staff are “lame” and the only reason to watch LA is to hear the Vin Scully farewell tour.

May it always be so but being in 1st place when you are one game above .500 is not exactly 1927 Yankee’s territory. BTW: the last road trip was 3 and 3, and before that the G-Men got swept at home by the Snakes (who are now 5 games under .500 in 4th place – however, Arizona seems to own the Giants). I give the month of April a “B” grade at best,  The only reason we are in first place is because of the Dodgers meltdowns.

Pitching Staff

The starters are performing quite well with the exception of Peavy, who sucks big time.  He got hammered by the Reds in today’s loss (giving up 4 dingers?).  Bum, Cueto and Samardzija are dependable starters with ERA’s in the low threes and WHIP’s right around 1 and change.  However the bottom line is that we have 3 dependable pitchers and two question marks.  Cain looks like the old Matt Cain for an inning or two, and then he hits two guys in a row, has to get in the stretch and gives up three runs.  Cain and Peavy are the principal reasons the team is one game over .500.

We cannot thrive on 3 starters.  Peavy (he of the 9 ERA) is on a short leash.  The problem is that there isn’t anyone to replace him. Heston melted down (and was sent down) and there are no real replacements in the farm system.

That brings up the Timmy question.  He is finally supposed to have his show this week (on Friday in Arizona), and the Giants are suddenly interested.  They have always been interested in him as a reliever, but maybe now they will look at him harder as a starter if Peavy can’t get untracked.  At the very least if he accepted a long relief role he would be poised to be a replacement.  Wouldn’t that be cool?

Let Tim Smoke (in every way possible)!

The relievers are performing pretty well and Casilla is looking good when he gets in. Lopez is getting one out with one pitch more often than not and it turns out that he leads the majors in that weird stat.   The new boy Vin seems to have the jitters and Mike Broadway did not look good in his stint up in the bigs.

The Injury list

Pagan (left hammie) is mending well but Angel has always had tender hamstrings and even though when he has been playing he has been great (batting .315) you still worry about his legs.  Panik is out with a groin strain but has been relatively ably replaced by Tomlinson. Romo and Kontos are still out from strained flexor tendons, and they are both missed. Adrieanza is also out with a broken foot.  He has not really been missed.

The Offense and the Defense

The bats are heating up. Belt is the leader right now (,323 and looking really comfortable at the plate – he now drawing walks in the Barry Bonds territory), with  Posey right behind him at .315. Pence may be batting only .279 but he is hitting dingers and with men on base with a vengeance (5 dingers, 29 hits and a team leading 23 RBI”s) along with awesome defense, which is why he was NL player of the week,  

The defense is playing well.  Duffy looks like he is going to own third base forever, Pagan and Blanco in left are great defenders. Pence in right is a wild man marvel and the Brandons regularly put on a show.

The series to come

We have six games at home against the Rockies and the Blue Jays.  When the Rockies come into town we will see Nolan Arenado, Gonzales and LeMahieu.  Pitching will be Chatwood, Bettis and Qualls, although I don’t know the order.

When the Blue Jays arrive it will look like the Rockies of old because of Troy Tulowitski, who used to drive us nuts as a Rockie. However the Blue Jay’ pitching has been the story there.  Most of their starters are in the high 2’s from an ERA standpoint. Stroman, Estrada and Sanchez should not be taken lightly.

It is well past time for the Giants to step up their game and it will have to be through the pitching.

Ciao, and GO GIANTS!

The Czar

The Long Home Stand and Settling Into The Season

Welcome to the 4th Czar’s blog of 2016. The G-Men are in town until April 27th continuing the opening month campaign against the NL West. The Snakes and the Padres are coming into town sandwiched around Barry Bonds Marlins.

How do the troops look so far?

Although we are only 13 games into the regular season, several trends are starting to stand out.

Pitching Staff

The starters, with the exception of Jake Peavey (who pitches tonight) are performing quite well.  Bum has a non-decision in a close extra inning loss to the Dodgers, and then got pounded in LA on Friday night.  He still looks good. Cuero has two excellent starts (and wins) and is pitching like a legitimate number 2.  Samardzija has had two solid outings and has pitched well. Those contracts, based on a small sample size, look very good right now.  Matt Cain is also pitching well, even though he’s being babied by the coaching staff.  Peavy is the problem.  Hopefully tonight he can right his ship but he looks very shaky.

The relievers are not performing as well as we are used to expecting.  Romo is on the DL and Lopez gave up a two-run dinger to the Dodgers yesterday (to a left handed batter no less, the first time in two years) that lost that game.   Casilla is looking like Casilla. He’s capable of a shut-down inning but is having a problem pitching around any errors (which also shouldn’t happen) or less than stellar plays.  A bobble by Panik cost us a game against the Dodgers on the home stand.  On the good side, Strickland, Osich and Kontos are pitching shut down innings. Even though Heston in long relief looks overmatched, maybe it’s just the jitters.  Time will tell there.

The bottom line is that the bullpen is more of a work in progress than we expected coming out of spring training.  Keep an eye on this trend. Thankfully we have the best pitching coaches in baseball in Rags and Gardie.

The Offense and the Defense

The bats have been a little cold. Pagan is the leader right now (over .300), with Belt right behind him, but Posey and Pence are down in the .250 range. The G-Men opened up the offense in several games early in the first home stand and they are too good for us to believe that this recent cold spell will continue. 

Keep the line moving guys!  You can’t expect to win every game with a home run.

The defense has been generally good with the exception of one very bad game from Tomlinson, and the loss of Adrienza to a broken foot.  Needless to say the coaches are working with Tomlinson.  Hopefully he will improve because a back-up to Crawford (whose defense is awesome) is critical.

The Giants and the Dodgers – G-Men get the opening series 4 to 3, and the NL West looms

The G-Men have had 7 games against the Dodgers so far, and have won 4 of them.  Thus, no reason to panic. Now the rest of the NL West comes into town.  While the early standings show the G-Men in 3rd place behind the Dodger and the Rockies (we dropped 2 out of 3 games to the Rockies in Denver last week), it is very early.

The upcoming series against the Snakes and the Padres (with Miami in the middle) will tell us a lot about this year in the NL West.  The G-Men are playing even with the Dodgers so if they can dominate the Snakes and the Padres they have a shot at the division lead. The losses to date mostly came on the road (the G-Men have had only one home series, and they went 3 and1) so the friendly confines of AT&T will be welcome.

It’s wonderful to have baseball back on a regular basis, and the fact that the Warriors are in the basketball playoffs is just the icing on the bay area cake.

When did “to Steph” become a verb?

That’s it!

Ciao, and GO GIANTS!

The Czar

It's Opening Day And The Dodgers Are In Town

Welcome to the 3rd Czar’s blog of 2016. It might still be April but it’s now serious. It’s Opening Day, the Dodgers are in town for the first time in 2016, and both teams look healthy.  From the weather reports this upcoming 4 game series will be a mid-summer affair, and the ball may be flying at AT&T.

The Giants and the Dodgers – performing to expectations?

The G-Men come into the home opener 2 and 1 after meeting the rebuilding Brewers inside the dome in Milwaukee.  Bum pitched the opener with the flu (which took out Denard Span yesterday) but was serviceable enough to get the victory because the bats came alive and crushed the Brewers 12-3. 

The preseason expectation of Giants power (from Span, Duffy, Crawford, Belt, Posey and Pence) looks to be very accurate.  Duffy has made everyone forget that there ever was a Panda (who, by the way, has been benched in Boston over, guess what, his weight – talk about dodging a bullet there!).

The back to back to back home runs in the Brewers home opener (Span, Panik and Posey) was an awesome moment (check out the video if you haven’t seen them) and if those dingers are signs of things to come this will be a terrific season.

Cueto was terrific in game two, which the Giants won 2-1.  He is exactly as advertised and his defense is as impressive as his pitching. Game 3 was different however.  Samardzija was not sharp, the Giants walked lead-off batters something like 4 times and walked 7 in the game.  Still, they had a shot at the victory but lost 4-3. The Shark is clearly a work in progress.

Today’s game is important for Peavy, and this entire series (Cain on Friday, Bum on Saturday and Cueto on Sunday) will be like the playoffs. The players to watch are Span and Pagan (who is starting off the season very hot).

The Dodger’s, for their part, are coming off of a sweep of the Padres (the Padres scored exactly zero runs in three games against the Dodgers) and are coming into AT&T with an attitude. Expect a rumble today (although I would be surprised to see another shutout) and through the weekend.

It appears that the Dodger’s young talent is ably supported by good pitching (expected from Kershaw) but continued with Kazmir and Meada (who got a homer himself) pitching lights out against a team (the Padres) that has lots of problems. But those are the Dodgers, they love to brag about beating up on the weak teams (can you say bully?).

Today is Alex Wood against Peavy.  Expect a lot of noise in the stands, if nothing else from me. 

This blog is short because I’ve been focusing on Booze Rules (check that out) and I have to get to the game. Now is the time to plunge into the season.  It feels like October in April.

BEAT LA!

Ciao, and GO GIANTS!

The Czar

The Rites of Spring

Welcome to the 2nd Czar’s blog of 2016 celebrating the end of Spring Training and the true beginning of 2016, when baseball comes back to the City by the Bay. The G-Men return home to AT&T today and play tomorrow and Friday before a game in Oakland and then off to Milwaukee for the Brewer’s home opener.

What does the team look like coming out of Arizona?

Answer: They look healthy and ready to play!

Pitching staff: The pitching staff has a high spring ERA but then again, they always do,  Spring is the time for pitchers to test pitches and get back in condition.  The good news is that the staff is healthy and the starters and relievers have pitched well over the last couple of weeks. The bad news is that the Spring ERA’s look pretty pathetic.

The Starters: I suspect that Bumgarner is not going to have a 11.12 ERA for long but we will see him on Monday against the Brewers. Peavy is at 7.62 for the spring but is starting to look very tough, Cueto is at 9.58, Smardzija is at 7.20 and Cain is at 12.15. The starters obviously need to suck it up now that the season is starting.

The Relievers (who have for the most part pitched much better than the starters): Heston, Osich and Kontos will be in long relief, Lopez and Romo (who has looked exceptionally tough) will be specialists, and Strickland and Casilla will be fighting it out as closers.   The G-Men are going to carry 13 pitchers so it looks like Cody Gearrin will get a shot (but maybe Jake Dunning will replace him – the last position battle going on).

Does all this sound familiar?  It should.  This is exactly how it looked going into Spring Training

The Infield is acknowledged to be best in the NL 

Belt (who is hitting really well and with power) at 1st, Panik at 2nd, Duffy at 3rd, Crawford at short and Buster Posey, the best catcher (and the best player) currently playing baseball, behind the dish.  It doesn’t get any better than this.  The defensive metrics for this group when they are together are off the charts.  Moreover they are hitting the snot out of the ball (the most home runs during spring training of any team in baseball).  Of course that is spring training but let’s see what they look like at AT&T this week.

Kelby Tomlinson (Clark Kent) made the team as the back-up infielder and Adrianza has been a real surprise. He hit the weight room in the off-season, gained 14 pounds (with no loss of speed) and his hitting (.333) has been solid.  Needless to say he made the starting 25.

One surprise.  Susac (he needs to get his wrist healthy) got sent down and Trevor Brown made the team as the back-up catcher.

Outfield: The bottom line is that the outfield is healthy and ready for the season. Hunter Pence is back (.471 and 6 dingers!). Denard Span is showing what he can do when he’s healthy but the eye opener has been a good-looking Pagan in left field (.395 with power – can you say “contract year” for Pagan?). Blanco is the fourth outfielder (which may all the outfielders that are carried early on – but Belt can play outfield in a pinch). Maxwell and Williamson both went to Sacramento, along with Conor Gillespie (who had a good spring and Gorkys Hernandez, another spring surprise).

Again, no real surprises after spring training, which is a testament to the Giants front office and coaching staff.  Bruce Bochy is the best manager in the game today, no question.

One question? Where’s Timmy?  Complete silence from the Lincecum corner.  I keep expecting something but who knows.

The NL West – what’s happening there?  

While this will be a three-team race (Dodgers, Giants and Snakes), the April ball-games will tell a lot.  The G-Men face the Dodgers (7 games), Rockies (3 games), Snakes (4 games) and the Padres (3 games) in April. That’s 14 games against the NL West alone.  Factor in a series against the Brewers and Marlins and it’s a very tough few weeks, with almost no days off.  That’s why Bochy is carrying 13 pitchers.  Let’s see how fresh the G-Men are after April.

The Dodgers are beset with injuries but the Snakes are playing well in the spring, as are the Padres. It is really too early to report without some games under our belt. We will have a much better handle on the NL West after April is over.

The next blog post (probably early next week) will offer tickets to the first homestand, and there will be tickets available, so make sure the blog post email gets through!

Now it is time to get the glove ready for AT&T and enjoy baseball – 2016 style!

Ciao, and GO GIANTS!

The Czar

Spring Training in an Even Year

Welcome to the 1st Czar’s blog of 2016 celebrating the true beginning of the new year – when pitchers and catchers report to Scottsdale for San Francisco Giants training camp.  Position players reported today.

Without further ado, let’s check in on the boys in Orange and Black, who finished last season with a winning 84/78 record but out of the playoffs.

There are many theories behind the odd/even year thing but the one I most favor is the injury theory. That holds that a team playing late into a season doesn’t have time to recover from the inevitable run of injuries attendant to any 162 game season, which made the Kansas City Royals victory last year (and all the Yankee’s back to back titles) all the more remarkable.

However that also points up a Giants weakness, which is their relative lack of depth.

Where we left off in October – The injury list Now

• Aoki – Concussion symptoms. He was not available in left field for the end of the season run, which forced Blanco to play more than expected. Aoki is now with the Mariners where he can cheer on Ichiro (who will soon pass Pete Rose if you include Ichiro’s Japanese hits).
• Cain – nerve irritation.  He says he’s fine and is now the 5th starter making $18 million a year.  Matt must a major piece this year and the lingering injury uncertainty is one of the reasons the national press is questioning the Giants pitching staff.
• Crawford – calf injury and oblique but he still got a gold glove and a silver slugger award.  He is rightfully regarded as the best shortstop in the NL and was rewarded with an appropriate contract in the off-season.
• Lincecum – hip, out for the season and probably no longer a Giant because there is no place for him on the roster. Especially concerning is that he keeps delaying throwing off a mound.  He could be done but if he is 2 Cy Young’s and 3 rings will keep him forever in the hearts of all the Giants faithful. I will never see number 55 again without thinking of the Freak - - he will be taking tokes in our thoughts forever.
• Panik – back tightness. Scary stuff after what happened to Scutero and Sanchez but Panik says that his back is healed and he’s full strength.  Let that be so because he’s a legitimate .300 hitter with great baseball sense and a great glove. He has the ability to be our best 2nd baseman since Jeff Kent.
• Pence – left oblique strain (after a broken arm). He was out for 110 games.  Hunter is the heart and soul of the team.  He is truly the straw that stirs the drink (with apologies to Reggie). He’s healthy with a new haircut, and a new girlfriend. The haircut worries us all.
• Sanchez and Susac (both back-up catchers!) out for the season in September. Hector is gone and Susac is a question mark. Backup catcher is a position to watch in spring training. Trevor Brown (a very good looking kid) is going to be pushing Susac hard.

What did the off-season look like?

The Giants brain trust stepped up to the plate and addressed the biggest need –starting pitching.  They picked up Johnny Cueto from the Royals and Jeff Smardzija from the White Sox.  Two work horse pitchers (200 plus inning eaters) joining the other horse (Cain).  Then the hole that Aoki left in left field was filled with Denard Span from the Nationals. This was about $220 million in salary commitments but – if they can perform coming off of injuries (Span), and a down year (Samardzija) the rotation and lineup will be solid.  The worry is that the reason the Giants got a bargain was because the players really are injured.

What is this year supposed to look like?

Pitching staff: solid. Bumgarner (personally I will take Bum over Kershaw anytime – the fact that he brought his horse to spring training says it all), Peavy (however, is he healthy? There is a question mark there with his hip – and he did not have surgery in the off-season), Cueto (who was smoking hot with the Reds but less so with the Royals, until the playoffs), Smardzija (a Dave Righetti project) and Cain. Heston, Osich and Kontos will be in long relief, Lopez and Romo will be specialists, and Strickland and Casilla will be fighting it out as closers. Affeldt retired but there may be some real surprises here in training camp. Law and Okert will be fighting for spots.  Keep in mind that the ESPN knuckleheads picked the Dodgers pitching staff over the Giants based on depth.  We will see on April 7th.

Infield: best in the NL?  Belt (with a one year deal to avoid arbitration) at 1st, Panik at 2nd, Duffy at 3rd, Crawford at short and Buster Posey, the best catcher (and probably best player) currently playing baseball, behind the dish.  It doesn’t get any better than this.  The defensive metrics for this group when they are together are off the charts.  The challenge however is behind them. Kelby Tomlinson (Clark Kent) showed at the end of last season that he can play. The question is whether or not he can keep it up this year. I’ve never been a fan of Adrianza and I suspect that this spring will see him seriously tested. It would have been nice to see Juan Uribe as a back-up but that was not to be.

Outfield: improved and healthy, or not ready for prime time? The good news is that Hunter Pence is back, and that the G-Men picked up a really good center fielder and lead-off hitter in Denard Span from the Nationals. However Span spent most of last season injured.  Pagan is slated for left field (Pagan is in a contract year but he is 35, and he is fragile) with Blanco as the fourth outfielder.  The battle for back-up in the outfield will be Maxwell and Williamson, neither overwhelming. This is a unit that is supposed to have power but, except for Pence, the numbers just aren’t there.  I would not be surprised to see some trade moves involving Pagan (and maybe Maxwell or Williamson) in the spring.

The NL West – what’s happening there?  Right now the national press is split over the Giants or the Dodgers coming out on top of the NL West.  This blog of course picks the G-Men to come out on top, but it will be a dog-fight right down to the wire.

It may really be a three-team race. Many (including John Smoltz at MLB) favor the Giants because the Dodgers lost Grienke to the Diamondbacks, and the Giants are a solid team.

Do not leave the Snakes out of this discussion. The may have a really good year and challenge when one considers that the Snakes got Shelby Miller from Atlanta, Patrick Corbin is healthy and Paul Goldschmidt is the best first baseman in baseball not named Adrian Gonzales.  I would also notforget that Tony La Russo in putting together the back end in Arizona.  He is not to be trifled with.

But the Dodgers have young position starters (Joc Pederson, Yasiel Puig – with a new attitude that I will believe when I see it -  and the supposed rookie sensation at SS in Corey Seager) along with incredible depth that are causing the national press to favor them over the G-Men. While the Dodger’s also have all-world pitcher Clayton Kershaw behind him are pitchers (such as Kazmir, Anderson and Maeda) that, while serviceable, are not world class.

I do not want to leave out the Padres and the Rockies, both good teams that are in a rebuilding mode. While they are not expected to challenge for the division lead they are not to be overlooked, especially the Rockies hitters.

Finally, do not forget the intangibles.  In the Giants case that includes Bochy and Wotus (the best managers in the league), the Giants front office of Brian Sabean and Bobby Evans and our secret weapons – the fans and AT&T park.

Against that the boys in blue have a new manager (Dave Roberts, who we like but who is a rookie manager after Mattingly got canned and went to Miami) and the Snakes have Chip Hale.  I think that the odds here favor Bochy and Wotus, don’t you?

Now it is time to sit down, pull up the easy chair, get the glove ready for AT&T and enjoy baseball – 2016 style!

Ciao, and GO GIANTS!

The Czar