The Braves, the Nationals and Memorial Day

Welcome to Czar’s blog #6 of 2017

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There are about 100 games left – Do the Giants have a chance?

This is the principal question being asked by Giants fans from coast to coast. The answer is a very qualified yes (although the better question might be “chance at what?” -not finishing in the cellar?). It is quite clear however that the G-men have been simply dreadful so far in 2017. 

The bad news: We are tied with the Padres (last in the NL West but that was expected for a team – the Padres - with three Rule 5 starters) for the fewest runs scored in the NL (161). The pitching staff sports a pathetic 4.37 ERA.  Bumgarner is out until August, Hunter Pence’s hamstrings are trouble and he’s on the DL again, Nunez was out today with leg problems and we still don’t have a reliable middle reliever.  It seems like the injuries come and go but more come than go.

The recent games: The Giants have played better recently and won 8 of their last 13 (before dropping the last three games to the Cubs and finishing the road trip 3 and 4 – maybe some bad calls mixed in there but good teams overcome bad calls). There have been more home runs (mostly without runners on base) and an occasional flash of the old team but again not enough and not sustained.  Every time they look good they then look bad again. For every stellar Crawford pick there is a pitching meltdown from the bullpen in the late innings.

We are all hoping for a summer surge.  If the 20 and 29 (11 games back) G-Men can get to .500 by the All-Star break they might have a shot but even then it would be a long shot. However, except for series against the Nationals and the Rockies, before the All-Star break they are playing against teams that they should play well against.

Whatever happens it’s worth it to see Buster’s excellent season (.361 average, 1.01 OPS), and Arroyo’s development (is it time for Austin Slater in left field?). I might also mention Ty Blach who wouldn’t be getting this chance if Bum was healthy.  Blach looks good and looks like the future.  These are guys we want to see play ball and thrive.  Let’s relax and take the pressure off them and see what they can do over the next six weeks.

The NL West- Is the torch passing?

The Rockies are on top of the world and the Snakes are right behind them.  The Dodgers (you know, the team with all their money invested in Bitcoin and Puerto Rico) are close and expect to be in the hunt until the end.  This might be the year (like so many past) where we live to knock out the dreaded boys in blue.  Again, the real key will be at All-Star break when we start to look at who is a seller and who is a buyer.  Regardless, it’s still baseball and it beats the you-know-what out of politics.

That’s it!

Ciao, and GO GIANTS!

The Czar

Reds and Dodgers, It's Time to Send the Love

Welcome to the 5th Czar’s blog of 2017

What happened to the G-Men, and where do we go from here?

This is going to be a relatively unusual blog from The Czar because there really isn’t much good that can be said about the last place team in the NL (10 games back) after the first month of the season, and the worst Giants start since the early 1990’s.  The Giants have absolutely no offense, the starters are getting torched, the relievers can’t hold a lead and the defense has been breaking down at absolutely the worst possible time.  To top it off, there are injuries up and down the line-up (Span, Crawford, Bumgarner, Hill, Parker, Will Smith and, as of today, our closer Melancon).

The boys are coming off a long (11 games, the longest of the year) road trip with the low point being a 5 game losing streak against the Reds and the Mets, and the high point being taking 2 out of 3 from the Dodgers. 

There are several theories about what has happened.  Before I put forth my humble opinion, however, I am going to turn the floor over to my good friend David Wofsy for his guest analysis. 

Dear Czar,

It surprises me that anyone expected the Giants to be contenders this year.   They had the worst record in baseball for the second half of last season.  They created the illusion of being better than that by having one (and only one) good week at the end of the season (sweeping the Dodgers to squeak into the playoffs, beating the Mets behind Bumgarner, and looking competitive against the Cubs while losing three of four games).

So what happened in the off-season to the team with the worst record in baseball?  They got worse.  They lost Pagan from an already weak outfield and didn’t replace him.  Pagan wasn’t great, but there were plenty of games last year in which he sparked the offense.  They lost three experienced relievers who were admittedly at the end of the line, and replaced them with a reasonably good closer.  However, even if you forgive Melancon’s shaky first month as a Giant, and even if you believe that one good reliever can fill three holes, he can only close if they carry a lead into the late innings.  That isn’t happening very often.

The unavoidable truth is that the Giants entered the season weaker than the team that had been the worst team in baseball over a sustained period last season.  So we really had little reason to expect much more than we are getting.  Then they had the misfortune to lose a key lefty reliever (Smith) and their ace starter (albeit with an 0-4 record due to no offense).  Posey’s beaning and Crawford’s injury may have cost them an additional game or two, but there is no evidence that their presence would have changed much.  Belt is still Belt; Pence is showing his age, and Posey hits singles (unless the opportunity presents itself to hit into a double play).

Bottom line: They are who they were, only a little worse.  Rebuilding time.  Welcome Christian Arroyo.

The Bright Side:  We have no right to complain.  Over the past 15 years, the Giants are the only team in baseball to appear in four World Series, winning three and providing great excitement in all four playoff runs.  They have earned the right to a bad year.  I have had some bad years, too.

Keep the faith,

David

I think that the real take-away from David’s analysis is that there is a Bright Side and the only question is when will it start to shine.  Arroyo is the real deal.  He’s number 22 (and a Will Clark look-alike, with his number) at third base looking like a young Matt Williams.

However, I don’t think that it’s time to start talking about rebuilding.  Rather it’s time to get healthy, take each game one at a time, relax and enjoy playing the greatest game known to man.  The Giants are pressing and that never works.  The pieces are there for a decent season and it’s time to start the climb out of the cellar.  Crawford is back tomorrow, Span the week after and maybe there will be personnel surprises in the wings.

It’s time to cherish the Giants as they are, go to the games, root for a victory and relax as fans.  We are not beach-ball blowing up come-lately fans. We are the Giants faithful.  We lived through the 1962 loss to the Yankee’s, the lost years in 1983 to 1985 (100 losses for God’s sake!), and the rebuilding years after the 1989 world series earthquake loss to the A’s.  We lived through the rally monkey in 2002 and we can live through this.

Personally, I trust Bruce Bochy and the front office.  I know that they are out there seeking solutions.  Obviously left field is the first priority but so is center and so is grooming a replacement for Pence two years from now.  There are a lot of youngsters in AA and AAA (like Austin Slater) that will get the same kind of look that Arroyo is getting right now, and that might be ready for the show.

Regardless, the tale is not told on the scoreboard but in the dugout.  It’s time to relax in the stands (and in the dugout) and send our love out on the field.

As David says, keep the faith!

This next two series are against two of the hottest teams in baseball: the Reds, who just swept the G-Men in Cincinnati, and LA, which is climbing in the standings.  This is the time for us to show our support.

That’s it!

Ciao, and GO GIANTS!

The Czar

Dodgers & Padres - The Good The Bad & The Hopeful

Welcome to the 4th Czar’s blog of 2017

A one and four road trip against the NL West (Rockies - they swept us in 4 games) completed what has been abysmal week of baseball leavened only by last night's stellar 2-1 victory over the Dodgers to start the current 7 game home stand against the Dodgers and Padres.

The Bad - Let’s get it out of the way

• The record - 7 and 13 and in second to last place in the NL (ahead of only Atlanta).  Not good.

• The injuries - Posey beaned (but coming back), Bumgarner acting stupid on a dirt bike and out for 8 weeks, Span out with  a right shoulder sprain, Parker out with a broken clavicle, Williamson out with a left quad sprain, Cain with hamstring tightness, Hill out with a right forearm strain, Smith on the 60 day DL and Bochy having  been in the hospital with a heart condition last week while the team was hammered in Denver.

• The starting pitchers - perhaps the worst ERA in the league.  Who hasn't shuddered when waiting for Samardzija to give up a big inning and multiple dingers to the other team?  Every one of our starters has suffered from the “giving up the big inning” malady.

• The relievers - does anyone other than me think that Derek Law looks like a deer caught in the headlights every time he comes into a game? Last night he gave up the Dodgers only run in the 8th inning before settling down long enough to get the final out of the inning.  Melancon has us biting our nails and when was the last time we saw Strickland in the 8th inning?

• The hitters -  Panik, Crawford, Pence, Belt and Posey are the heart of the order and they are producing but not, it seems, at the right time (like with men on base).  The Giants have left more men on base this year than I've seen in a long time.  The team BA is clearly low and the other players (like Marrero, released on assignment yesterday) have been failures.  The failure list includes Hernandez who, let’s face it, is in there for defense.

The Good

• Christian Arroyo – called up yesterday from AAA where he was batting .418. He made two stellar defensive plays last night at 3B.  I’m waiting to see him break out.  He actually looks like an early version of Matt Williams from the late 1980’s.

• The Line-Up – was completely revamped this week with Pence leading off.  I think that Panik should be leading off myself but what do I know.  I will say that last night’s line up was a bit better.  Let’s see what Bochy does tonight. We need guys that can get onbase at the top of the order, and Pence gets on base.

• Matt Cain – other than the tight hamstring, which was hopefully caught in time (when he was lifted after six innings of very good pitching) Matt Cain has been the surprise of the early season. He looks like the horse of old and has an ERA well under 3. This could be a harbinger of good times to come.

• Beating the Dodgers in this series -  The boys in blue are almost as bad off as the G-Men and it is truly weird to see us fight for the cellar with the Dodgers after the pre-season analysis of dominance in the division. However, if we can take this series that will play great dividends when we get to September and have to face LA (and the Rockies!) with the playoffs on line. 

• The “Lights-on!” rally! How cool is it when the entire stadium turns on cellphone lights at the same time in the late innings to highlight a rally! 

The Hopeful

• Drew Stubbs in Center Field while Span recovers (although Span hasn’t been exactly hitting the cover off the ball).  Stubbs is at best a journeyman player (although he was a first round draft pick back in the day). Let’s hope that he has matured and can provide some offense to go along with what has always been a stellar defense.

• Christian Arroyo hitting over .300 in the show.

• Ty Blach taking on Clayton Kershaw tonight in the place of Bum. Does he have it? We will see.

• Nunez in left field making a significant contribution. He is the team leader in steals and is a great slap hitter but left field is a power hitter position, and we don’t have a power hitter.

• A slow but steady rise in the standings while playing solid fundamental baseball. It is a long season and a lot can happen but the moves made this week are good moves.

The NL West

The Rockies are in first place and playing great.  The Snakes are right behind them and playing .619 ball. The Padres and the Dodgers are a game apart with the Giants bringing up the rear. Right now the Rockies are the surprise of the NL and are playing terrifically.  The Giants and Dodgers are both trying to correct listing ships and the Padres are, well, the Padres.
 
May the Baseball Gods be good to all of us!
 
That’s it!
 
Ciao, and GO GIANTS!
 
The Czar

Snakes and Rockies

Welcome to the 3rd Czar’s blog of 2017
 

The first road trip of the season against the NL West (Snakes and Padres) just came to an end, and not a minute too soon. It feels like the G-Men have been bitch-slapped by the division. It’s April, we are 7 games into the season and it already feels like a desperate September. Blowing 8 leads in 7 games? Giants, can we speak with you for a moment?

What does the team look like after the first week?

Answer:  2 and 5 (last place in the division!) and very strange. The hitting is strong, the defense has made unusual errors but is generally sound.  However the pitching is erratic. Why so tight? 

Question: Are the G-Men over-rated or did the Snakes and the Padres get pissed because they were both dismissed in the pre-season as factors and took it out on the Orange and Black?  Is this a home field thing? The next two weeks will go a long way towards answering these questions.

Pitching staff

The Starters: Bumgarner and Cueto are nails, Moore and Samardzija are acceptable and Cain (we all expect) is headed for Sacramento after one more bad start. Everyone seems to be pressing, and it shows.

The Relievers: Guarrin, Law, Kontos, Strickland and Melancon have all pitched and for the most part not well.   Melancon blew his first save opportunity against the Snakes but today he got the DP to get the save in what was really a must win game against San Diego.  Maybe the bullpen is that bad but maybe not.  It’s too early to tell.

My take is that the relievers need to be slotted into specific innings and stay there. Kontos in the 7th, Strickland in the 8th and Melancon in the 9th is my prediction for a winning bullpen.  Slot Guerran, Law and the others for long relief. Again, I predict (unless he has a really good start next week) that Matt Cain is toast and we will quickly see Beede up here fighting it out with Blach for the 5th starter slot.

The Offense and the Defense

Infield

Belt is hitting really well and with power (3 HR’s) at 1st, Panik at 2nd is batting .400 and looks like the second coming of Joe Morgan, Nunez at 3rd is batting .375 with 3 steals and Crawford (MVP?) at short is at .348 and looks like he has had all of the big hits this season.

Can someone explain to me how Belt, one of the best defensive first basemen in the game, lets a ball go between his legs to basically lose a game?

Buster Posey, the best catcher (and the best player) currently playing baseball, is as strong as ever behind the dish but he can’t carry the team by himself.

The infield looks good which is why the key errors are so difficult to understand.

Outfield

Hunter is playing healthy this year and so far it shows.  Span has been hurt but came back today and played well. Chris Marrero got his first hit today.  Gorky’s is an acceptable center fielder but looks surprisingly like Gregor Blanco.

The problems with the outfield are mostly in left field where Marrero, Parker and (surprisingly) Arron Hill are battling it out.  I like Hill.  He is a veteran with power and baseball savvy.  If he can play left field I expect we will see him a lot more.

In terms of offense, however, one cannot overlook Bumgarner.  He is tied for the team lead in batting (.400 with Panik) with 2 dingers in the first game (where the lead was blown later). Bum is what Babe Ruth must have looked like when he was pitching for the Red Sox before he got traded to the Yankees and stopped pitching.

The bottom line is that the Giants are scoring 4.9 runs a game.  The record should be a lot better than 2 and 5. Of course, when the team ERA is over 5 that would explain a lot. Maybe AT&T will help :).

The Coaching Staff

I wonder what they think about this start. Bochy is certainly not panicking but he has to be wondering what team he is watching.  If I was Rags I would be sweating bullets over the inconsistency of the bullpen. 8 blown leads?

The NL West

Right now it’s really early.  The Snakes are in first place and coming into AT&T tomorrow. The Rockies are in 2nd place, the Dodgers in 3rd, the Padres in 4th and the G-Men are bringing up the rear.  I don’t expect that those will be the standings after the next series. But, who knows, that’s why baseball is so much fun.  You can take nothing for granted.

Now it is time to get the glove ready for AT&T and enjoy baseball – it’s time to turn the ship around!

That’s it!

Ciao, and GO GIANTS!

The Czar

The Run to the Playoffs, Starting with the A's

Welcome to the 2nd Czar’s blog of 2017 celebrating the end of Spring Training and the true beginning of 2017, when baseball comes back to the City by the Bay.

The G-Men return home to AT&T on Thursday (with a 40 man roster – who will be voted off the island? That is the question that may be answered below) and play Thursday and Friday this week before a game in Oakland on Saturday and then off to Arizona for the Snakes home opener next Sunday – the true beginning of the season.

What does the team look like coming out of Arizona?

Answer: Pretty healthy, except for Will Smith’s upcoming Tommy John (out for the year), Williamson’s leg (really?) and Morse’s hamstring.

Pitching staff: The pitching staff is coming together well and the competition there has been the real story of the spring – especially when we are talking about Matt Cain. He is in the last year of his big contract and will earn $18 million while pitching himself out of a job. He also may be this year’s answer to the annual Barry Zito trivia question about who has the worst contract on the team.

The Starters: Bumgarner is once again the stud of the rotation, although he is being pushed by Cueto for the cool factor (is there anyone more relaxed than Cueto on the mound?). While Moore’s ERA is in the 5’s and Samardzija and Cain are in the 8’s, Moore is looking game ready, Samardzija is throwing very hard and Cain is getting rocked by leaving balls over the plate.  He is not fooling batters..

The big story is the young guys, especially Ty Blach and Beede, both of whom are pitching like starters in waiting.  Blach and Cain are locked in a fight for the 5th starter (versus long reliever) spot and Blach is winning. The story will play itself out at AT&T on Thursday and Friday.  Expect both to pitch in the series.  Beede on the other hand is probably a lock for the River Cats even though he deserves to be up here. $18 million does that to a front office.

The Relievers: Guarrin, Law and Kontos will be in middle relief, perhaps joined by Strickland on occasion, Melancon (the big off-season acquisition) will be the closer.  The battle right now will be between Okert and Osich for the remaining spot.   With Lopez retired and Sergio having scuttled off to LA like a cockroach in the off-season (although you can’t blame him for wanting to play, and he did give us a lot of good years) the relievers will have a different look this year, hopefully better than we saw in Game 4 against the Cubs (shudder).

The Infield is acknowledged to be best in the NL 

Belt (who is hitting really well and with power) at 1st, Panik at 2nd, Nunez at 3rd, Crawford at short (did you see Craw in the WBC? my God that man put on a show – he is no longer going to be fooling anyone) and Buster Posey, the best catcher (and the best player) currently playing baseball, behind the dish.  It doesn’t get any better than this group.  The defensive metrics for this group when they are together are off the charts.  Buster and Brandon look (after the WBC) to be in mid-season form.

The remaining spots include Gillespie (pretty a lock as back up third base), with Aaron Hill versus Kelby Tomlinson and Jimmy Rollins for the remaining spots.  The money is on Gillespie and Hill (who have both played well) making the team, and that Tomlinson (who has options left) goes down along with the surprising Korean utility fielder Hwang. Who wants to take money on Jimmy Rollins retiring?  Who wants to take a bet on Hwang making the team if the Giants take one less pitcher?

Outfield: The bottom line is that the outfield is healthy and ready for the season. Hunter Pence is Hunter Pence. Denard Span is showing what he can do when he’s healthy but the real contest has been between Parker (who probably has the job locked after hitting the cover off the ball this spring), Williamson (with both a bad leg and options – can you say River Cats?) and a new face, Chris Marrero.  Remember that name. The guy can hit. Gorkys Hernandez is the fourth outfielder (in the traditional Blanco spot).

Again, no real surprises after spring training, which is a testament to the consistency of the Giants front office and coaching staff.  Bruce Bochy is the best manager in the game today, no question.

One question? Will old age affect the G-Men? Posey is 30, Pence is 33, Melancon is 32, Cueto is 31 and Crawford is 30.That’s long in the tooth for baseball and it’s a really long season.  Look for the young guys (like Austin Slater) warming up if the season doesn’t go well. 

The Coaching Staff: Usually this isn’t an issue with Rags and Bochy in the dugout but there are two new base coaches this year.  Billy Hayes is gone at first and replaced by Jose Alguacil (who got beaned really bad in Scottsdale) and Phil Nevin is replacing Roberto Kelly (who stunk last year) at third.  Look for a better running game.  Nevin is a manager in waiting.

The NL West – what’s happening there?  

While this will be mostly a two-team race (Dodgers, and the Giants), the G-Men face an uphill battle all the way.  The Rockies are stockpiling pitchers but are still playing in Denver, the Padres are rebuilding and Arizona is a mess.

That said, here is what the Dodgers (who are no doubt a strong and arrogant ream led by all-world Clayton Kershaw) are saying about the Giants.  This is one of their team report to the fans:

The Giants aren’t that good. You really shouldn’t be worried about them. Don’t get me wrong or misunderstand what I am saying here. The Giants will be competitive in 2017. They’ll be the Dodgers primary obstacle to the division title. But are they pennant contenders? I’m going to say no.

The report goes on to diss the entire Giants team as weak and over-rated. I can’t wait to be at the first Giants-Dodgers game this year at AT&T (that will be April 24th) and see if we can’t shove these words down their throats. Where is Candlestick Park when we need it on a Friday night?

And thus it begins.

Now it is time to get the glove ready for AT&T and enjoy baseball – 2017 style!

Ciao, and GO GIANTS!

The Czar