Czar's Blog #2 - Nationals, Dodgers and Padres are coming to AT&T

Welcome to Czar’s blog #2 of 2018

We are 21 games into the season – can we tell anything yet?

The G-Men are 9 and 12 and in 4th place in the NL West.  Of course that doesn’t say a lot when the vaunted (picked to be all-world before the start of the season) Dodgers also have only 9 wins, the Padres are one game back and the leader (Snakes) are on a torrid pace.

Today’s historic win against the Angels (a really good team) marked the first Giants series victory of the year, and was historic because of Belt’s 21 pitch at bat to open the game.  Maybe Belt’s big day (and 4 homers in the last 4 games, 5 total) is a sign of things to come.  It sure was a lot of fun to listen to the call of that at-bat.

There is much discussion about the age of the roster. They are an older team for sure but are they too old, or are they just adjusting and trying to find the right pace? While I’ll really worry when I see them asking for the softball rule that allows courtesy runners for old batters (I know that rule well) the adjustment to new core players (Jackson, Longoria and McCutchen), and well as the new managers and coaches (Bochy is the stability factor) should be allowed to play out.

On a side note Pence (and we all love Pence) may be done.  Mac Williamson is an awesome batter, plays a great left field and looks like the left fielder of the future.  Pence’s bad “thumb” is not an good excuse for batting .172.  Wally Pipp. Enough said.

The bottom line is that it’s too early to tell what we have yet. Let these guys play together for a while longer and then, if we remain in the middle of the pack, worry.  However taking a series from the 14 and 8 (after today) 2nd place Angels (with all-world Mike Trout) is heartening.

The Offense – where is it?

This is the real worry.

The G-Men have the lowest team batting average in the NL, and for sure have the lowest batting average with Runners in Scoring Position (RISP) in the majors. But, then you look at the new stat (speed of the ball on hits to the outfield) and you realize that the guys are scalding the ball – they are just hitting directly at the fielders.  According to this stat the Giants are hitting the ball harder than any other team. Does that mean they are pressing?  I suspect so.  Longoria is not a .243 batter, McCutchen is not a .213 batter and Posey is not a .265 batter.

The old guys hit on this last road trip (Longoria with 4 dingers, one behind Belt, McCutchen with 3 dingers, including 2 game winners, and Posey with 3) and this next series of games at AT&T (as the weather warms up) will be a test.

Regardless, RISP must be brought home.  I am noticing that Bochy is constantly fiddling with the line-up, which tells me he hasn’t found a fit yet.  I like Panik at the top of the order though, and bringing Williamson up higher in the order will probably happen in the upcoming series at AT&T.

BTW: has anyone else noticed that Blanco is playing better than Jackson, both at the plate and in the field?  Keep an eye on that contest.  Jackson feels Blanco breathing down his neck.

The Pitching – the Winchester Mystery House makes more sense

We all knew that the starting rotation would be in flux until Bum came back but the Giants have actually pitched well (lots of one and two-run games). Cueto is a stud (.035 ERA), and Stratton is the real deal. Unfortunately, Blach has choked and Holland is a middling replacement. That leaves us waiting for the real starters to come off the DL. The Shark started yesterday, went 5 innings and got the victory.  He looked good.  Now we are looking for Bum to come back (the pins were just removed from his hand) and for the rotation to stabilize.

As for the relievers, Tony Watson is looking good and Moronta is pitching like he wants a permanent job. Law, on the other hand, is back in the minors where he belongs, we are waiting for Melacon and Will Smith (like waiting for Godot) and Strickland is reverting to form (fastball down the middle and then over the wall).  I do not understand what happened to Dyson over the winter but if he can be the pitcher he was last fall that fills a lot of holes.  We all watched Gearrin almost give away the game today.  He worries me, as any reliever with a 6.43 ERA will do. The relief core needs work.

Will Bum and the Shark returning change the team?

Yes. The Shark is back.  Bum will come back.  They will stabilize the roster of young pitchers.  If we can hang in until that happens, and hit better, maybe the spring won’t be such a nail-biter (although the “torture” manta is returning).

What does the Western Division look like?

Right now the Snakes are running away with the division.  I don’t think that will continue.  The division will tighten and parity will reign until either the Giants or LA jells and beats up on the other teams.

That’s why the Giants/Dodgers upcoming series next weekend is so important.  The teams are more even than anyone realized and if the G-Men can stabilize the batting order, continue with the good defense they have played (how many one-run games can one team play?) they can go into mid-summer as the team to beat.

It’s an even year.

That’s it!

Ciao, and GO GIANTS!

The Czar

Czar's Blog #1 of 2018 - Are you ready for a little baseball?

Welcome to Czar’s blog #1 of 2018

Opening Day is this Thursday in LA

Opening day. You have only to say the words and you feel the shutters thrown wide, the room air out, the light pour in. In baseball, no other day is so pure with possibility. No scores yet, no losses, no blame or disappointment. No hangover, at least until the game's over.

The world is a strange and dangerous place these days, with chaos and storms on every horizon. Let’s put all that behind us and focus on real life – which is baseball.

The season is about to begin, the Czar is back for another year with updated blog technology and the first pitch is almost here.

The 2017 Giants – Requiem for a Season not meant to be

There is not much to say about 2017.  The G-Men finished 64 and 98, last in the NL West with their worst record in 32 years.  The year was marked by injuries, a motorcycle accident involving Bumgarner, meltdowns and injuries and generally bad karma.  Our consolation was three world series victories in the previous seven years (2010, 2012 and 2014) and the Dodgers going down to the Astros in the 2017 world series.

The Off-Season and Spring Training

The G-Men went against the conventional “go young” movement and instead opted for experienced offensive players who could bring power, runs and defense right away.  Evan Longoria from Tampa Bay was signed for third base (after losing Matt Duffy in Marlins trade last year), Andrew McCutchen from the Pirates came in to play right field and Austin Jackson From the Tribe will play Center Field.  McCutchen and Longoria were the veteran mainstays of the teams they left and are veterans with HOF credentials. Both are hitting the cover off the ball in spring training.  Both are, however, over 30 (which qualifies them for a wheelchair in baseball years). 

The test this year will be experience over youth (although the G-Men have young players). This team is built, offensively anyway, to win now. Think about it, there are potentially six HOF players on the team - - four on the field, Posey, Crawford (my HOF pick), Longoria and McCutchen, one more on the mound (Bumgarner) and one in the dugout (Bochy).

The Giants picked up pitchers Tony Watson (relief) from the Dodgers and Derek Holland (starter) from the White Sox.  Not a lot to say about that except that Holland will be starting and Watson is needed to shore up the bullpen until Will Smith (finally) returns from Tommy John. This spring has shown that Sam Dyson is reverting to his old “hit me” style, Strickland seems to have found another pitch to back up his blazing fastball and Law (thank God) is back in the minors.

The goal was to stay the course, add power and defense and look to compete in the very tough NL West (where the Dodgers sit at the top lording it over everyone else behind some guy called Kershaw) with healthy pitching behind Bumgarner, Cueto and the Shark,.

The plan included a lot of coaching changes: Rags is out at pitching coach, Wotus now resides at third base, and Meulens is now next to Bochy on the bench (maybe being groomed for bigger things).  Bochy is still the man though, even though the G-Men announced today they are adding Dusty Baker (much beloved) as a special advisor. Every Giants fan loves that move; Dusty is as much a part of the Giants family as Will Clark, Willy Mays, Orlando Cepeda, Willie McCovey, Barry Bonds and the other Giants greats.  He will bring stability and smarts. It’s a great move.

The original plan looked good based on spring training games - - until last week anyway.  The Giants are competitive and have good talent at almost all positions. 

Spring Training Disasters

Last week was not good. Samardjiza strained a pec muscle and is out for 3 to 4 weeks. Then Bum got hit on the hand deflecting a line drive, broke his pinky and is out until early June at the earliest.  The young guys must now pick up the slack.  Ty Blach starts the season against the Dodgers on Thursday (he is good against the Dodgers and won against Kershaw last year). Let’s see what a rotation of Blach, Cueto, Stratton and Holland looks like. 

Can the Giants compete in the division?  Most of MLB says no, the Giants are cooked because of the injuries.  I say not so fast.  The season hasn’t even started yet and I loved what Longoria said about the injuries “well, that just means we have to turn on the offense and out hit everyone.”  That is a good attitude from a player that make it happen!

Nothing is wrong with playing with a chip on your shoulder, and the Giants have a big one this year.  If they get through April and May playing .500 ball or better and then get the senior starters back (especially Bum), this could be a really good year.  The fact the Dodgers and the Snakes are coming into AT&T thinking that the G-Men are pushovers may lead to some early season surprises (before the horses come back).

What does the line-up look like?

There are a lot of tough decisions still to be made.  If the G-men carry 13 pitchers (which will probably be the case because without Bum and Shark the bullpen will be very busy), that means 12 position players.

Locks are McCutchen, Jackson and Pence in the outfield, Belt, Panik, Crawford and Longoria in the infield and Posey and Hundley behind the dish.  That’s nine players.  Blanco (playing out of his mind this spring) and Duggar (the Giants best minor league prospect, who can play and should make the team if the world were fair) are the back-up outfielders and the Panda (who looks great, has lost weight and is being paid by the Red Sox) and Tomlinson are the back-ups at the infield positions.

I count 13 players for 12 positions.  Who will be the odd man out?  Probably Duggar but stranger things have happened.

Let’s play ball!! – last exhibition games this week and home opening day on April 3rd.  Meanwhile we open on the road against, who else, the Dodgers.  That is somehow right.

That’s it!

Ciao, and GO GIANTS!

The Czar